Post by account_disabled on Mar 13, 2024 20:03:09 GMT -8
To stop the pandemic, only one thing is needed: during the window of time in which an infected person can transmit the disease to other people, they do not do so. On paper, this measure is simple; In the real world, it is extremely complex to implement. How can we achieve this objective, so simple and at the same time so difficult? Of many ways. For example, limiting contacts between people, as we did through confinement. We can also reduce the likelihood of contagion in existing interactions, through masks and distancing. A third way is immunization, through vaccination or through the so-called natural herd immunity. Herd immunity is based on the idea (purely statistical) that when a sufficiently high number of people have overcome the disease, its transmission stops. This is because each patient encounters a smaller number of people susceptible to being infected (because many are already immune.
Is this strategy viable? Can it be implemented at a regional, national or even global level? The idea is not new. Since the beginning of the pandemic, some countries opposed measures to stop infections. In AOL Email List the end, the health collapse of the first wave made them change their minds. In recent weeks, however, it seems that memory is beginning to falter. Probably due to the threat of a devastating economic crisis, the herd immunity hypothesis has risen from the ashes. A group of experts published the Great Barrington declaration on October 4, in which they reject confinement and distancing measures due to their social and economic consequences. They advocate that most of the world should “live normally” until herd immunity is reached.
The most vulnerable fraction of the population should, according to them, self-isolate during this period. They have dubbed this strategy “focused protection.” Another group of experts quickly responded against this statement by publishing the John Snow manifesto, named after the considered father of modern epidemiology. For them, the pursuit of herd immunity is a terrible idea. These are the reasons: - Millions of people would die The lethality of SARS-CoV-2 is not known with certainty and, furthermore, depends on the moment and the population observed. Even so, conservative estimates are around 0.6% of infected deaths, which would imply that, if herd immunity is around 60-70%, around 200,000 people would die in Spain. Zas, Santander or Castellón eliminated from the map! Not to mention the consequences of many of the patients who manage to survive.
Is this strategy viable? Can it be implemented at a regional, national or even global level? The idea is not new. Since the beginning of the pandemic, some countries opposed measures to stop infections. In AOL Email List the end, the health collapse of the first wave made them change their minds. In recent weeks, however, it seems that memory is beginning to falter. Probably due to the threat of a devastating economic crisis, the herd immunity hypothesis has risen from the ashes. A group of experts published the Great Barrington declaration on October 4, in which they reject confinement and distancing measures due to their social and economic consequences. They advocate that most of the world should “live normally” until herd immunity is reached.
The most vulnerable fraction of the population should, according to them, self-isolate during this period. They have dubbed this strategy “focused protection.” Another group of experts quickly responded against this statement by publishing the John Snow manifesto, named after the considered father of modern epidemiology. For them, the pursuit of herd immunity is a terrible idea. These are the reasons: - Millions of people would die The lethality of SARS-CoV-2 is not known with certainty and, furthermore, depends on the moment and the population observed. Even so, conservative estimates are around 0.6% of infected deaths, which would imply that, if herd immunity is around 60-70%, around 200,000 people would die in Spain. Zas, Santander or Castellón eliminated from the map! Not to mention the consequences of many of the patients who manage to survive.